US HVAC Equipment Demand to Reach $14.3 Billion in 2009


Demand in the US for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment is forecast to increase 3.2 percent per year to $14.3 billion in 2009. Advances will be driven primarily by a projected recovery in nonresidential construction, along with ongoing strength in residential remodeling.

Because of the large stock in place, HVAC demand attributable to replacements and improvements comprises about 70 percent of total demand. Growth in the replacement sector will benefit from rising interest in more energy efficient building systems, driving the replacement of older HVAC equipment.

HVAC shipments are forecast to advance somewhat slower than demand at 2.7 percent per year to $12.9 billion in 2009, as import growth from Asia continues and exports stagnate. These and other trends are presented in HVAC Equipment, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industrial market research firm.

Benefitting in part from the relatively low initial costs of these systems, warm air furnace shipments accounted for the largest share of total heating equipment shipments with 45 percent. Heat pump shipments reached $1.5 billion in 2004 and are expected to post the strongest gains through 2009. Heat pump shipments benefit from the ability of these units to provide efficient heating and cooling in moderate climates and to serve as a low cost supplementary heat source in colder climates.

Shipments of unitary air conditioners amounted to $5.5 billion in 2004, representing 79 percent of all cooling equipment shipments. Packaged terminal air conditioners and chillers are forecast to achieve above average annual gains, benefitting from their use in industrial and commercial markets, two areas that are expected to post strong recoveries in construction spending through 2009.

Advances in HVAC equipment demand will be spurred by growth in the nonresidential market, which accounted for 60 percent of sales value in 2004. Increases in the nonresidential market will be driven by a projected rebound in nonresidential construction, but further gains will be restrained by the prevalence of reconditioned HVAC systems in this market.

HVAC Equipment (published 12/2005, 267 pages) is available from The Freedonia Group, Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, OH 44143-2326. For further details, please contact Corinne Gangloff by phone ++ 1 440.684.9600, fax ++ 1 440.646.0484 or e-mail Information may also be obtained through the Freedonia Group’s website.

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